Archive | May 2015

What Im Reading This Morning

http://morganhousel.tumblr.com/post/119291459748/the-priceless-art-of-not-caring (Morgan Housel)
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/05/19/investors-are-cooling-on-u-s-equities-baml-survey/ (WSJ)
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-05-19/when-central-bankers-whisper-secrets (Bloomberg View)

Acoording to BAML Quants are increasing Time horizons while caring less on Deep Value

In a BAML note called Quants and the Quest for Alpha, which a survey of quants, they reported that their time horizons are growing, but they arent focusing on deep value. They are more focused on dividend yields and foreign stocks.

Factors have increased as well:

q1

when it comes to time horizons, most quants have expanded their time horizons:

q2

Finally there has been a shift to foreign exposure and dividend yield :

q3

I find all of this to be very interesting, quants have begun to implement more inputs into their models yet they are expanding their time horizons. The expanding of their time horizon has to due with lack of opportunity that they see in the markets such as low bond yields. This also attributes to the increase in Dividend yielding stocks, as their time horizons increase and the lack of opportunity becomes more of a issue the quants search for yield leads them to dividend yielders. I think this is fascinating because most people think that it is just the home gamers doing this; when in fact it is the pros as well. When it comes to the foreign exposure I think this has to do with the moves in currency markets and the fact that foreign stocks generally have lower valuations than those in the US. I see this move by quants to be a problem though, as the Dollar comes off of it’s March highs this impacts Dollar dominated returns on foreign stocks as shown here on a six month chart of the $HEDJ and their pink line being the $DXY:

hedj dxy

If this continues to happen then quants will feel pressure on their dollar dominated position causing them to possibly start to exit those positions and contradict their longer time horizon and less short term trading. If the quants exit out of those trades it could create some interesting moves. Just Something to think about.

 

 

Meh

The title says it all when it comes to my thoughts on the market. I am not adding to my positions, I am not cutting: I am holding. I have made about 6 trades in adjustments to my actually portfolio, seen here trades(My Trades)

You may notice that I did do some day trading in $TSLA with limited success, but back to the broader markets. I know many of you have heard the mantra of “This is a stock picker’s market” and it appears as of today that statement is pretty true.  The S&P is only up about 2.7% for the year and there have been many good stocks to select that have beaten the market so far(DIS, UA, AAPL, SBUX, AMZN, and NFLX to name a few) and up until now owning $TLT.

spxvtlt(TLTvsSPX)

Now I know we are only less than half way through the year. Which means this mantra could be proven completely wrong at the end of the year. Until something happens in the markets or to one of my positions that pulls my attention, like a over 5% decline for the S&P or some crazy move in my portfolio, I will continue to hold because I made my moves in the 10% correction in October, so I really don’t have to be doing anything. The S&P has been in a kind of  daze and really wont move until something happens this may be a rate hike from the Fed in which case if you are a long term investor don’t worry (read my post about it http://wp.me/p3YRiJ-4u) it will most likely be a buying opportunity. It is in markets like this one where investors can take even more time to research and study up on companies or topics because the market is doing a slow grind higher. Volatility has died down after spending a good amount of time above $20 on the $VIX in January. We still have growing earnings which means stocks can keep going and maintain the market’s valuation, or until something happens, so once again im back to being “Meh”. I dont have to make moves and I really don’t want to.